Updated 2024 Guidance and 2025 Financial Year Outlook
As communicated during our Q3 results presentation, we are providing an update
on the market outlook for 2025 and a more detailed guidance for 2024.
Outlook for 2024: We now expect adjusted EBITDA for 2024 to be in the range of
USD 1,880 million to USD 1,910 million, representing a year-over-year
improvement from 2023 of 4-6%.
Outlook for 2025: Based on the current market situation, our current
expectations on contract renewals and our forecast, we anticipate adjusted
EBITDA for 2025 to be 5-10% higher than in 2024. This guidance is based on the
following assumptions:
o Sale of MIRRAT completed in Q1
o Continued avoidance of the Red Sea
o No material adverse events
If we exclude earnings from MIRRAT in both years, the expected YoY increase in
adjusted EBITDA will be 7-12%.
Market Balance: We expect 2025 to be another solid year for Wallenius Wilhelmsen
based on cargo volumes and contract coverage. While we observe some signs of
softness in the auto segment, we see potential for volumes to recover in 2025 as
several OEMs have cut back production in the latter half of 2024 to balance
inventories. The introduction of new models in 2025 may contribute positively to
volumes.
High and heavy volumes are assumed to remain muted for much of 2025, with a
possible uptick towards the end of the year.
Vessel supply is expected to grow throughout 2025, which may push utilization
down if cargo volumes do not grow.
Development in Logistics will largely depend on auto and High and heavy
production volumes. The expected conclusion of the MIRRAT sale in Q1 will also
reduce income from Logistics.
We continue to see strong demand for Government services.
Risk Factors: Our outlook statement is based on current market conditions and
considers several risk factors, including slower global economic growth,
potential tariffs hindering world trade, conflicts, and the avoidance of the Red
Sea.
Geopolitical risks remain in focus, and we see increased risks associated with
trade conflicts. The impact of such events on our operations cannot be assessed
at this time. Other risk factors include supply chain challenges, labour
conflicts, and cost escalation. We also note that several auto OEMs and High and
Heavy equipment manufacturers are struggling with sales.
Overall, we see growing uncertainties for 2025, but we expect our solid contract
base, including 2024 renewals, to support our business and counterbalance
possible market softening.
Fleet Renewal: As previously communicated, we have placed orders for 14 new
Shaper class vessels, with deliveries scheduled between 2026 and 2028. The
vessels on order are expected to cover our requirement for newbuilding
deliveries through 2028.
For further information, please contact:
Anders Redigh Karlsen - VP Global IR & Market Insight
Tel: +47 994 20 293
Email: anders.karlsen@walwil.com
Idha Toft Valeur - Media Contact
Tel: +47 406 05 210
Email: idha.valeur@walwil.com
About Wallenius Wilhelmsen:
The Wallenius Wilhelmsen group is a market leader in roll-on/roll-off (Ro-Ro)
shipping and vehicle logistics, managing the distribution of cars, trucks,
rolling equipment and breakbulk to customers all over the world. The company
operates around 125 vessels servicing 15 trade routes to six continents, a
global inland distribution network, 66 processing centers and eight marine
terminals. With a head office in Oslo, Norway, the Wallenius Wilhelmsen group
has 9,500 employees working across 28 countries worldwide.
Read more at: walleniuswilhelmsen.com